"Football is a sport invented by the English, who plays for eleven against eleven, and where the Germans win at the end." so, Gary Lineker, English avant-centre of the 1980s, defined first world sport after the 1990 football World Cup which was won by the Germany. May he be heard of again. Because this vow, despite appearances, would be the best way to win... the French growth.
Germany, heavy weight in the euro area with almost 30 of its gross domestic product (GDP) and first commercial partner of the France (the trade between the two countries reached 100 billion euros each year), is entangled in a soft growth in recent years: 1 last year, 1.6 in 2004 and 0.2 in 2003. Above all, it leads a strategy of reconquest proved costly for the France: by compressing the wage costs to boost competitiveness, German companies have been conquered market shares and external trade, but they have at the same time strangled the 82 million German consumers demand. A competitive "non-cooperative" disinflation policy explains, according to the French Observatory of economic conditions (OFCE), "half of the market share losses since 2004" in France and 0.3 point of growth lost each of the past two years.
To reverse the trend, "weltmeisterschaft" timely. Since a few months, Government and economists see German economy shiver. All have revised upward their forecasts. They expect now to 1.6 to 1.8 growth this year. After a point low in June of last year, the morale of the industrial reached historically high levels earlier this year. The confidence of consumers, it is at the top for 15 years, and their consumption grew by 2.4 in annualized first-quarter pace. After having sold without purchase, the Germany began to invest and consume. While the appreciation of the euro, the rising prices of oil and interest rates are still risks to the growth in France, the Germany has become in those months the main "Bull hazard", analysis the Insee. "A rebound of the Germany and perhaps history will change France growth in the second part of the year." And this is where the football World Cup: a German victory would boost that this rebound.
The parochial spirits will object that a French win would, logically, more beneficial to French growth. But the impact of a World Cup is more important in the host country: it is he who constructs, invests, welcomes tourists, consumes. The morale of the French in Bern after the riots in the suburbs, the first crisis of contract hire or the rise in the price of gasoline, certainly dated. But how effectively In France, even with flat, morale households consume, Lance kicked in savings and massive recourse to credit accounts. The potential for additional consumption there is, therefore, all things being equal, relatively low, whereas it is particularly strong German. The Germans are the only members of the euro area debt remained stable in recent years (to about 110 of their disposable income, however, against 65 in France) and where credit has barely risen and even households decelerated in recent years. In a study entitled "What if German households behaved like those of other countries in the euro area", Patrick Artus, Director of research at Ixis CIB, explained also that, if the Germans had the same behavior of debt as households in the eurozone since 2000, imports would have been more than "13 higher than" last year. And the France would have benefited because, even if the Germans buy products imported from low-cost, "elasticity" between German households expenditures and French exports is relatively high: on average, said Insee, an increase of 1 of the German consumption translates into an increase of slightly less than 1 of French exports to the Germany. Note the Insee, however represent only 15 of total French exports.
It must of course be careful: some economists doubt a massive effect of the only world consumption Cup; They point out that this effect was particularly difficult to isolate in France in 1998, as the context was a strong recovery of consumption. It prevents: whenever the Germany hosted a major sports event in her home, the impact has been very clear. The country thus recorded a strong peak in consumption in 1974, on the occasion of his victory in the World Cup, won on its soil, as well as during the European Cup in 1988. A victory of his national team could this time maximize the impact of wage increases recently negotiated by the Union of the IG Metall Metalworkers (for 3.4 million employees) and strengthen early consumption of German households in the prospect of a three point of VAT increase next year.
No bad pun, should in any case take the ball to the bond both the World Cup effect will be fleeting and fragile. The prospect of an increase in interest rates in the euro zone, arbitration between profit and always business-friendly wages and planned VAT increase will be in a few months among the reasons for the Germany of withdrawing around its core business that exports. A risk which justifies him only to support the German team during the coming month.