Station then effect boomerang for the dollar and the yen

In 2008, exchange rates experienced exceptionally responsible for year in twists and turns. The US dollar has singed, the Japanese yen is launched into orbit, the euro fell on the ground and the pound suffered a crash which opened a giant crater. The currencies of emerging economies is bombard, similarly "currencies-goods" such as the dollars Canadian, Australian, New Zealand and the South African rand, following the curve of the exports of raw materials.

Which reserve the year 2009 It is not to bet on the persistence of high volatility. But is Atypically at the junction of short-term and long-term trends very different from each other. Short term, the yen and the dollar benefit from a status of safe haven and stimulation linked to lower rates to zero of the other central banks.

Commodity prices will continue to be weak, which will help curb commodity currencies and strengthen especially the yen.

Normally, the trends in rates of Exchange in the short and long term share the same curve. A very large number of studies show that, with respect to most major currencies, best forecasts that are a week, a month or even a year are simply their rate of today. But it is far from normal. This financial crisis contributes to regularly raise the course of the dollar. Commodity prices bottom again.

There will be many a time where you can decide the end of the financial crisis, such as the global recession. But, wait at least seven to eight months. When growth will resume, recent trends in support of the dollar and the yen appreciation will disappear. It may be that investors know will the United States to their energetic pulses monetary and fiscal, who will go in is amplifying the arrival on 20 January in the power of Barack Obama.

But investors will still have to worry about what will happen the day where the invoice arrives. Number of emerging markets will also want to conduct a countercyclical macroeconomic policy but, for the sake of fiscal sustainability and for fear of rampant inflation, they will not have free rein. European policy is submitted, its budget, to the restrictions of the Treaty of Maastricht, while on its monetary, the major concern remains the price stability.

That said, China, with its massive foreign currency reserves, has as much as anyone the means to conduct counter-cyclical macroeconomic policies. But Chinese leaders know that their very subdued, banking system is weakened by the insensitive advances of financial liberalization and their reserves may be used for recapitalisations. This is why it can be assumed that no region is will be as expansionary as the United States.

For the moment, investors are not yet satiated of US Treasury bills. But this application is explained in large part by a momentary fear that feeds the crisis. As markets return to normal, the investors will undoubtedly meet the eyes and realize that by fighting the downturn, the United States will greatly dug their debt, no doubt several trillion dollars. Simultaneously, the decline in the prices of today (or "deflation") will be replaced by inflation, price stability is inevitably distorted by a relaxation of monetary policy.

Of course, can be considered that some of the fluctuations in 2008 had a regulatory effect on the major currencies. A measured by purchasing power, the euro was unreasonably overvalued 1.60 dollar and the yen was unreasonably undervalued at more than 120 yen for 1 dollar.

These alignments have therefore contributed to a certain extent, to restore a little balance in the relative domestic prices and exchange rates. But now, the exchange rate of the emerging countries, and more commodity currencies, fell probably excessively low.

Term, globalization and economic convergence to submit in motion, and emerging markets and commodity currencies will have to consolidate. At the same time in the US, the prospect of increased inflation and an extremely important public debt weigh inevitably on the dollar, as always the worrisome trade deficit. As the yen, there, he also suffered from the constant increase of the Japanese public debt, which levels are already among the highest in the world. The continuing weakness of the Japanese economy will eventually have reason for the yen.

If today the constellation of the exchange rate reflects an excessive appreciation of the dollar, especially by comparison with the currencies of emerging markets, at what point would fix It depends on the maturity at which it is the end of the financial crisis, and this deadline is also difficult to predict than Exchange rates. But it will come. Station then effect boomerang for the dollar and the yen.