This year consumer prices are stable in June they increased by 0

The increase in electricity rates of 20 "on three or four years" sought by Pierre Gadonneix appears poorly emmanchée. But the CEO of EDF may nevertheless obtain a significant increase in mid-August prices. According to our information, the Ministry of ecology and energy proposes an increase of 1.9 for tariffs (residential) blue, yellow (SMEsSMIs) 4 and 5 for the Greens (Enterprise). This tariff movement appears to be consensus among the Government, but, as he has not submitted for opinion to the Commission for regulation of energy (CRE), which is expected before the end of next week (1), it can still be subject to adjustments on the part of the Elysee Palace. Because, as the rate of pay of the booklet, the subject is extremely sensitive politically.

As the public service between EDF and state contract provides that blue rates do not increase at a rate higher than inflation. In July 2008, it was 3.6, what amply justify the Black 2 increase in August last to individuals. This year, consumer prices are stable - in June, they increased by 0.1 on the month and decreased by 0.5 on the year, but the State could justify an increase by arguing that the public service contract does not clear the reference period for the calculation of inflation. Anxious to keep political room for manoeuvre, it is free to take as a basis the month of July, the last twelve months, or even the duration of the contract, from 2005 to 2010.

Fix the amount and the time

In technical terms, the proposed increases are in the order of the recommendations of the CRE. The regulator wants a strict application of the Act providing that the tariffs "cover the whole of the costs incurred by EDF" and pleads for a catch-up of professional rates. Today, a household pays its electricity near 91 euros the megawatt-hour (including transport costs), which is significantly lower than the average European, but higher than the 57 to 74 euros pay companies.

August 12, 2008, the Ministry of ecology and energy had arrested a 2 increase for the blue scales, yellow 6 and 8 for the Greens. A year later, and in crisis, analysts questioned the willingness of the State to pursue this path. The question is all the more sensitive that the Government is preparing to adopt the conclusions of the report Champsaur on the French market of electricity. In the interests of consistency with the European directives, it advocates that EDF may sell wholesale its electricity from base (nuclear and hydraulic) to its competitors.

Remains to fix the amount and time: stakeholders discuss the megawatt-hour of a wholesale price of 40-45 euros and a transition from two to three years. We should compare this figure to the implied base energy prices in regulated current tariffs, which amounts to about 35 euros. In other words, Champsaur reform is actually implemented in 2010, according to the schedule currently, public authorities have two or three years to reach these levels. From their point of view, so start now.