The Blues give colors to the France. Unhoped-for here are still ten days, the qualification of the national football team for the final of the world will oppose it, Sunday, to Italy is in France a collective fervor which contrasts dramatically with the spirit of the past months. After the long crisis of the CPE, in the spring, which followed closely that of the suburbs, this winter, the French were preparing to cross the summer with a little moral. Published June 30, the latest monthly survey of conditions carried out by the Insee household revealed a mild remedy, consequence of a better perception of the level of life, but it remains on very low scores (a balance of 28 between optimistic and pessimistic), well below the long-term average.
In a context of social gloominess, fed by the feeling of a loss of competitiveness, the adventure of the blue comes at the Government, all pleased with this wind of unexpected optimism. The Minister of Finance has been full of hope on the effects of this epic. "Sport, explained Thierry Breton, had little to do with the economy, but it embodies the self-confidence and this also has its place in the economy of a nation.". The parallel is tempting but unrealistic. Because the trimmings of Zidane leg should not benefit the French economy to political power.
A 1998 buying spree
Economists confirm well what common sense suggests that, whatever the outcome of Sunday, the morale of the household should mark a significant improvement this summer. As major political elections, sporting events of this level are among the few able to add elements, but "temporarily", the structural determinants of trust are unemployment and inflation, said Karine Berger, responsible economic synthesis to the Insee. In July 1998, the household confidence index had jumped to an unprecedented level before stabilizing during six months. This time, prevents Eric Heyer, an economist at the OFCE, "it will not attribute the effects of the adjustment of the minimum wage and the decline in unemployment to the World Cup."
Above all, nothing says that these best provisions transform additional consumption. The link between the morale of the household and consumer behavior has long been distended. In July 1998, French households had been made on a buying spree, including motor vehicles, whose sales had increased by 33 on the month. But consumption was then in the recovery phase as it operates today, for a long time, at a very high level. And the effect was of short duration, growth amounts to 1 in the second quarter to 0.4 in the third and the fourth!
Be the host country
Especially, this time, two elements considerably limit the economic impact of the world. The first is that the France is no longer the host. However, said Karine Berger at Insee, "the main effect is for the host country". The other point is that our economy would have rather had need to see its exports boosted, so a victory of... the Germany, our largest trading partner. While the blue can convey the image of a France who wins and who seduced, but, still, observes Eric Heyer, "our country has already a good rating to foreign investors." At the rabat-joie risk to appear, Insee expected "no visible economic effect" success of the blue. Not what change one iota the growth forecast, still at 2 for the year.