Reserve Federal American conduct in a new round of screw next week, while us growth moderates To William Poole, the President of the St. Louis Fed, it would be 50-50. Human cast doubt Monday in the camp of the proponents of the status quo. And even more so after the numbers in the measurement of the effect price in US consumer spending. Data published yesterday afternoon for the month of June gave evidence of an acceleration of inflation. Excluding food and energy consumption, growth is 2.4, 2.2 found in April and may. This indicator, that economists saw 2.3 away little by little the Fed's comfort zone and is close to the high end of the forecast range (recently revised) inflation between 2.25 and 2.5 at year end. But, as William Poole believed good recalled Monday, the first objective of the US Central Bank is to contain inflation.
In fact, expectations of a new tightening of monetary policy across the Atlantic have even gained ground yesterday. On the futures market, stakeholders attribute to a new Act of the US Federal Reserve next week a probability of 39 compared to 26 at the end of last week. On the front of State bonds, yields to are slightly strained, the image of the US 2 years an increase of 2 points of 4,967.
The stable euro
Side change, however, the effect has hardly been sustainable. While he was hoisted up to 115,38 Yen in session, the dollar is exchanged at 114,69 Yen later in the day, an increase of only 0.07. The European Central Bank was about to give a new turn of screw to its monetary policy tomorrow, the euro reached to resume its rise. After a brief incursion under 1,2730 dollar in the afternoon, the single currency jumped to 1,2820 dollar later in the day, before stabilizing at 1,2810 dollar.
In meeting, us index ISM of the directors of purchases in the manufacturing sector had yet reinforced the effect of consumer spending. Interrupting a degradation movement began in April, the ISM index fell from 53.8 to 54.7 points last month. Analysts projected an average 53.5. The prices paid index also displays his accelerating: whereas 75.3 points, it emerged to 78.5 points. "With a deflator of consumer spending preferred measurement of the Fed inflation at its highest level since September 2002, an increase in the rate cannot be excluded next week", commented James Knightley, at ING. But in the end, to the Economist, the verdict of the market with regard to the next meeting of monetary policy in the United States will depend on the report on employment for the month of July to be published Friday.
"If the net job creation are higher than the consensus currently of 145,000 units, and hourly wages rose by more than 0.3 on a month, the market may again promote the assumption of up 25 points in the rate base", said James Knightley. ING expects to see the purpose of federal funds end the quarter at 5.5.
Other appointments for the week, the new Secretary of State for the Treasury, Henry Paulson, yesterday gave his first speech. It is however registered in the line of his predecessor, John Snow, arguing as a "strong dollar was in the interest" of the United States while calling China to more flexibility in its exchange rate policy. "The value of currencies shall be determined by an open and competitive market on the basis of economic fundamentals", he said. A way to suggest that the United States meet the depreciation of the greenback over the past three years, until it is smooth.