It was to be the day of the Greece. Markets, it was primarily a black day for Portuguese and Spanish bonds. The European Commission yesterday officially approved the plan presented by the Greek Government to reduce its budget deficit in the coming years, while he flew to 12.7 of GDP in 2009. "This is a cautious green light," noted Barclays Capital. "The country will have to make a point detailed every month on the application of the measures and establish a statistical monitoring subject to audits and reliable.". First step points are already set, the release of a report for March 16. Brussels has also requested additional efforts in the reduction of public spending. "The message is a priori reassuring markets: from now on, the Greece will be framed and statistics could even potentially be subject to a penalty", reacts Jean-François Robin, at Natixis.
Sign of relief, 2 years of the loan of Greek State performance relaxed 2 basis points to 6,491 at the end of European session. At the same time, the "CDS" ("credit default swap") of the Greece, which measures the cost of insurance against a possible failure of the country, to tended slightly to 397 points, according to CMA Data Vision. The call to strike one of the major unions in the country, following the verdict of the Commission, shows that the application of the austerity program faces local opposition. Therefore, the part is not yet won.
The next on the list
Slight relaxation observed on Greek rates does not spread to the Portugal and the Spain. On the contrary: the rate to 2 Portuguese years flew 23 basis points to 2,386 and that of the Spain is tended by 12 points, to 2,142. The "CDS" of the Portugal also jumped by 30 basis points, to 196 points, reflecting a probability of failure of almost 15 within 5 years. "The Greece, the Portugal and the Spain are in a situation of 'permanent' decline of economic competitiveness, since they joined the euro area," said Joaquin Almunia, European Commissioner for economic and Monetary Affairs. A way to say aloud that the market begins to play a few weeks ago. The Greece is the "weakest link" and the two States of the peninsula are considered the "next on the list. The storm now appears above them.
The sanction of the market in their regard is powered by the revisions to the increase in deficits. Last week, the Portugal announced that it was 9.3 in 2009 and has indicated that that 2010 would be greater than expected. Yesterday, the Spain advanced the figure of 9.8 of the GDP by 2010, and warned that the deficit for the next two years also exceeded initial forecasts.
The fact that the Portuguese Treasury reduce Wednesday his issuance of short-term from 500 to 300 million euros and total a weaker demand that during a previous auctions in January also fed the climate of suspicion. The Portugal must be a lifting of medium-long term debt next week or the last February. This will be an important test.
Many market strategists believe that it is currently more interesting to buy Greek debt than Spanish or Portuguese, bonds which offer lower yields. Arbitration may be started.