This is confirmed since yesterday: bad the German economy was revived dramatically in 2010, with an annual increase of 3.6 of the product inside bBrut (GDP). It is the highest growth since reunification. Of course, growth slowed in the fourth quarter (0.5 against 0.7 in the third), but the statistics office incriminates especially the earliness of the winter, which has disrupted transportation and penalized the MGB. The Bundesbank expects a new bond of 2 for 2011. Most major institutes expect even to 2.5: the Germany should find its level of wealth of pre-crisis this year, after crossing in 2009 recession by 4.7, unprecedented in the post-war period.
The impressive restart of exports, in 2010 ( 14.2), commenced a virtuous circle, in which the companies have invested in equipment ( 9.4), hired, since unemployment is fallen below the 3 million people, and thus permits consumption of households ( 0.5). It should make further progress by 2 in 2011, according to the teams of UniCredit.
Domestic demand should this year provide a majority share of the growth. With these performances, the Government is managed to limit the public deficit to 3.5 of GDP. Berlin should return this year to the nails of the stability pact.
Of three cannon balls
Sylvain Broyer, at Natixis, welcomes the impact of the structural reforms carried out in Germany in recent years. "Since 2007, the Germany is cleared of three ball very heavy, first the indebtedness of households to the bursting of the bubble in the 1990s, then the debt of companies following the detonation of the bubble in the 2000s, finally public deficits, with one zero deficit in 2008.". According to him, except new violent shock on the world economy, the Germany should continue to show strong growth, especially since "for the first time since the creation of the euro, the ECB's monetary policy is favourable to the German economy". Rates are lowest that would require the German situation. A risk of overheating and inflation "No, I do not think." "In view of the level of productive investment in GDP, the economy can still withstand monetary stimulus for a while", provides Sylvain Broyer.
The strength of the German economy and the rebalancing of the exporter model stronger private consumption place Berlin position of strength in the European debate. "Our growth is twice higher than the average of the European Union," failed yesterday stressed Rainer Brüderle, the Minister of economy, failing to specify that the diving in 2009 was, in the same way, much more marked. In the case of a possible deepening of the mechanism of stabilization in the euro area, spokesman of Angela Merkel yesterday estimated that "it is not sensible, or need to discuss an expansion" of the Fund (see below). There is that Europeans will have this year to improve the governance of the euro area because, says Sylvain Broyer, "differences in the euro area can only widen, because it has a single monetary policy and fiscal it maintains a goal of budgetary consolidation homogeneous, then that should be differentiated targets." The ball is in the camp of the policy.
If the debates were to remain tense on the stage European, Angela Merkel may at least be welcomed see intentions to vote for the Christian unions back Finally, 35, according to the Forsa published yesterday, after having dipped below 30 in the last summer.